Nigeria 2023 Election : A Dream Deferred? | Peter Antigha

Since Nigeria’s adoption and commitment to democratic rule in 1999, national elections have been conducted after every four years, but the expression ‘free, fair, and credible’ could hardly be used in describing any. To the extent that ‘epileptic’ is a close ally of “power supply” in Nigeria, “irregularities” appears to have entered a situationship with “elections” in the country.

Commenting on the tentative eventual outcome of the Ukraine-Russia war, which has caused untold hardship and the death of many, The Economist, in its Feb. 25th – March 3rd issue, writes “What Victory Looks like: and what it requires”. While it would appear that there is a ceasefire, the editors caution that both parties, who have claimed a frail sense of victory, would have to define what exactly it would mean to win.

Since Nigeria’s adoption and commitment to democratic rule in 1999, national elections have been conducted after every four years, but the expression ‘free, fair, and credible’ could hardly be used in describing any. To the extent that ‘epileptic’ is a close ally of “power supply” in Nigeria, “irregularities” appears to have entered a situationship with “elections” in the country.

No election ever conducted since 1999 has been without irregularities leading to significant controversies that have seriously brought to question the transparency of the process and its outcome. In all, a winner would, however, definitely be declared, and the winner would go on to rule for the complete years specified except ‘death does him part’.

Were the people suddenly expecting a different tune in 2023 when the piper remains the same? And if yes, why?
The 2023 election is considered an election “different from…” previous elections. It came when most Nigerians were licking the wounds inflicted upon them by the almost eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

Mr Buhari’s administration has largely proven erroneous Newton’s Law of Gravity, if not for any other thing: most things that go up in Nigeria would hardly come down.

This should have been a good thing except they are mostly occurrences with negative consequences. Banditry, kidnapping, insecurity; inflation, the price of petrol, cost of living; government debts, annual budgets, and embezzlement have all increased exponentially.

As if Nigerians did not have a fair share of these ordeals, the Central Bank introduced its new naira design policy leading to the acute scarcity of cash. This is in the aftermath of the politics that surrounded the government’s management of Covid-19 that partly contributed to the End-Sars protest of 2020 and the government’s habitual reactive and disingenuous response. It was against the backdrop of this trapped dissatisfaction and disappointment that Nigerians would head to the poll.

Things had already fallen apart for many before the election. Most Nigerians would have interpreted the government’s body language as indifferent to the plights of the people, an intentional failure to understand and acknowledge their daily realities and struggles. The country appeared to lay ambushes on the people daily. The common prayer became “May Nigeria not happen to you” and ‘japa’ had become the self-initiated answer for some.

It should be stated that several common variables influence the atmosphere of an election in Nigeria. The 2023 election was not different: the nature of the primaries, the personality of the standard bearers, the candidate’s ethnic and religious orientations, and the candidate’s cultural background. But an additional mix was introduced – a supposedly ‘better’ candidate broke out of the two main parties to emerge the standard bearer of a rarely known party.

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A combination of these factors and the people’s growing distrust in the established order (of which both the ruling and opposition party are usually categorized) could be said to have favoured the popular candidate, Mr Peter Obi, and his unpopular party, Labour Party.

It is uncertain whether his message of dismantling the existing structure of criminality and moving Nigeria from ‘Consumption to Production’ resonated in the minds of the electorate, but it could be said with relative certainty that the people, especially the youths, heard his call to “Take Back Your Country. Nigeria belongs to you”.

Many support him because he is an Igbo and a Christian, and others support him because of his integrity and frugality. Some believe in his commitment to turning the country around, and some prefer his policy prescriptions. Whatever their reasons, they became known as the ‘Obidients”.

In less than 9 months before the election, Mr Peter Obi has undisputedly emerged as one of the three leading candidates even though people would insist that the election would be between the major parties.
Furtherance to INEC’s successful deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in previous state elections to authenticate and ensure that only eligible voters cast their votes, the introduction of the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IREV) was supposed to be the game changer as it would enable results to be uploaded and transmitted directly from the Polling Units unto the server for everyone to view in real-time.

With INEC assurances (who wouldn’t give assurances after receiving 355 billion naira) and the President’s pre-election deployment of the army to selected states to quell any instance of electoral violence, Nigerians would have been encouraged to participate in the elections. To many, maybe their votes would finally count with the use of technology. Obviously, people were critical of the technology only to forget the people that would deploy the technology.
It has been days since the election was conducted and concluded but its dust is yet to settle. INEC has declared Mr Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling party, APC, the winner and issued him a Certificate of Return.

But days after the announcement, the atmosphere is still far from anything celebratory. What could have happened? With more than half of the country’s voting population expressing disappointment at the poll’s outcome – including local and international observers, coupled with the two leading oppositional parties rejecting and outrightly dismissing the result as highly “controversial”, it seems only two groups are happy with the election’s outcome: the party declared the winner (i.e., APC) and those who declared them the ‘winner’ (i.e., INEC), which forces one to wonder, like the writers in The Economist, what victory really looks like. Is the victory a victory for Nigeria and Nigerians?

The just-concluded Presidential election might, arguably, not have been the most compromised in the history of the nation since 1999. It was not the election with the most violence and death. Neither was it the election with the most extensive rigging and other malpractices.
What just happened and still happening is largely an outcome of ‘friction’. In previous elections, most of the parties were involved in electoral malpractices in which ‘the best rigger wins’. In such situations, there was hardly any group that checked the excesses of others as they were all accomplices.

Equally consequential is that this year’s election witnessed the emergence of a third force whose message resonates with people of all tribes, religions, political affiliations, and ages. The admixture of primarily these two factors (i.e., a strong repelling force to the establishment and a candidate who embodies the hope of most Nigerians) would have foregrounded the reported controversies surrounding the process of the conduct of the poll and resulted in the gravity of the hurt and disappointment being felt by many Nigerians. For once, many Nigerians would have considered the election as an opportunity to truly birth a new Nigeria.

In his first after-election Press Conference, Mr Peter Obi assured his supporters of his commitment to exploring every available legal means to get back the “stolen mandate”. Many have, however, expressed pessimism in the Nigerian judicial system to objectively try the case to be brought before it. But many “Obidients” are hopeful that the plethora of what they consider ‘evidence’ and Mr Obi’s experience in electoral litigation is sufficient to prosecute the culprits of electoral malpractices and even compel INEC to void the outcome of the elections.

Since no one knows with certainty how long the litigation will endure and if Mr Obi will eventually be victorious, could it be said that the 2023 Presidential Election is a dream deferred?

Peter Antigha

Peter Antigha specializes in Learning & Development, Educational Innovation, Strategic/Corporate Communication. He is passionate about how narratives can be controlled for sustainable impact and growth. Peter Antigha is a proud Nigerian.